The Honest Record

How our Horse calls actually performed · 267 settled races

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

36.7%

Market fav win

67.4%

Market fav place

-5.6%

Market fav flat ROI

31.3%

Our pick win

64.1%

Our pick place

-13.4%

Our pick flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner (267 races). "Our pick" = the runner our model rated #1, where it had rated the race (131 races and growing as more races are rated).

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite thin we say back to win

Market fav: 59 races Win 55.9% Place 76.3% Flat ROI -8.4%

Our model pick: 29 races Win 48.3% Place 69.0% Flat ROI -21.2%

Competitive noise we say win or place

Market fav: 38 races Win 31.6% Place 78.9% Flat ROI -27.5%

Our model pick: 23 races Win 17.4% Place 69.6% Flat ROI -58.7%

Weak favourite thin we say place or pass

Market fav: 62 races Win 40.3% Place 69.4% Flat ROI +8.3%

Our model pick: 29 races Win 34.5% Place 62.1% Flat ROI -8.8%

Open race thin we say place, value, or pass

Market fav: 108 races Win 25.9% Place 57.4% Flat ROI -4.3%

Our model pick: 50 races Win 26.0% Place 60.0% Flat ROI +9.4%

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 1,483 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0725) is essentially level with the market's (0.0723). We match the market's accuracy but don't claim to beat it — our edge is in how we frame the race, not in secret better prices.

Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.