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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:40 PM R2 1:15 PM R3 1:50 PM R4 2:25 PM R5 3:00 PM R6 3:40 PM R7 4:20 PM R8 4:55 PM

Race 6

3:40 PM
1890m · 12 runners
🏁 Result
1st CAVALRY ⭐ Best Bet
2nd VALENTIAGO
3rd ROTHROCK
4th LUPA CAPITOLINA (NZ) 💡 Saver
✅ Best Bet won — CAVALRY finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
4
CAVALRY W $1.45
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
13
LUPA CAPITOLINA (NZ) P $1.70
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
4. CAVALRY FAV TOP RATED 9 $1.45 $1.10 $2.56
13. LUPA CAPITOLINA (NZ) 16 $6.00 $1.70 $7.58
17. OKAMI STAR 5 $13.00 $2.80 $11.10
10. OFF THE SCALE 2 $14.00 $2.90 $11.41
12. PECCAVI 18 $15.00 $3.10 $15.16
3. SIX FOOT SONG 3 $20.00 $3.60 $16.90
9. VALENTIAGO 10 $23.00 $3.80 $16.88
15. ROTHROCK 15 $61.00 $6.00 $32.29
16. SOUTHERN SKY 8 $51.00 $5.75 $33.92
8. SEPTIMUS 1 $61.00 $6.00 $38.57
2. WHETU 7 $101.00 $8.00 $64.02
1. MORNING SUN (IRE) 11 $126.00 $9.00 $70.70
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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