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RANDWICK KENSINGTON

R1 11:25 AM R2 12:00 PM R3 12:35 PM R4 1:10 PM R5 1:45 PM R6 2:25 PM R7 3:05 PM R8 3:40 PM R9 4:15 PM R10 4:50 PM

Race 4

1:10 PM
1300m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st PROBABILITY THEORY 📍 Place Pick
2nd PHYXIUS
3rd PENPEL
4th COMMON GOAL 💡 Saver
✅ Place bet — won outright — PROBABILITY THEORY finished 1st
Open race Thin
No standout. Play a place, take a saver, or pass.
3
PROBABILITY THEORY P $1.34
place only
Open race with no standout. Our model's top pick for a place bet.
5
COMMON GOAL W $13.00
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. PROBABILITY THEORY FAV TOP RATED 3 $3.40 $1.34 $4.42
7. PENPEL 5 $4.20 $1.45 $5.66
6. JAEGERS 2 $4.20 $1.45 $5.80
10. LIGHTHOUSE LASS 8 $5.00 $1.65 $6.13
5. COMMON GOAL 4 $13.00 $3.10 $11.53
2. FUADEE 10 $16.00 $3.40 $13.74
1. NINGALOO STAR 9 $18.00 $3.60 $17.24
8. PHYXIUS 7 $41.00 $5.50 $22.71
Favourite record at RANDWICK KENSINGTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($3.40) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.50–3.49 this race 42% 71% 24*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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