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DARWIN

R1 2:31 PM R2 3:12 PM R3 3:52 PM R4 4:27 PM R5 4:59 PM

Race 4

4:27 PM
1100m · 4 runners
🏁 Result
1st MERIMBULA
2nd RIVERS OF BABYLON
3rd PAFITIS 📍 Place Pick
4th FORGING AHEAD
✅ Place bet landed — PAFITIS ran a place
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
2
PAFITIS W $2.35·P $0.00
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
2. PAFITIS FAV TOP RATED 3 $2.35 $0.00 $2.89
3. FORGING AHEAD 4 $3.60 $0.00 $3.69
4. RIVERS OF BABYLON 1 $3.30 $0.00 $4.02
1. MERIMBULA 2 $6.50 $0.00 $7.43
Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.35) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00–2.49 this race 41% 90% 29*
2.50–3.49 40% 73% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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