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RANDWICK

R1 11:00 AM R2 11:35 AM R3 12:10 PM R4 12:45 PM R5 1:20 PM R6 1:55 PM R7 2:30 PM R8 3:05 PM R9 3:45 PM R10 4:25 PM

Race 4

12:45 PM
2400m · 8 runners
📍 Our record & guide for Australian Turf Club ›
🏁 Result
1st THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) 📍 Place Pick
2nd CASUAL CONNECTION (NZ)
3rd HUTCHENCE (GB)
4th DE LOUVIERE (IRE) 💡 Saver
✅ Place bet — won outright — THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) finished 1st
Open race Thin
No standout. Play a place, take a saver, or pass.
5
THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) P $1.32
place only
Open race with no standout. Our model's top pick for a place bet.
10
DE LOUVIERE (IRE) W $7.50
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
2
CASUAL CONNECTION (NZ) W $10.00
Form view · saver 8.3% above market on form
Form model rates this runner above its market price. Track+distance: 66.7% (3 starts) · Recent form: 5230
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 7 $3.00 $1.32 $4.16
3. CAP SAINT MARTIN (FR) 2 $4.40 $1.55 $5.74
1. THRICE (IRE) 8 $5.00 $1.65 $7.30
10. DE LOUVIERE (IRE) 4 $7.50 $2.20 $7.32
9. SAINT EMILION 6 $9.50 $2.50 $9.97
2. CASUAL CONNECTION (NZ) 9 $10.00 $2.60 $10.14
8. UNAVOIDABLE (IRE) 3 $16.00 $3.60 $12.36
7. HUTCHENCE (GB) 1 $41.00 $5.75 $31.61
Favourite record at RANDWICK ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($3.00) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.50–3.49 this race 44% 75% 48*
3.50–4.99 29% 64% 42*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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