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NEWCASTLE

R1 11:50 AM R2 12:30 PM R3 1:05 PM R4 1:40 PM R5 2:15 PM R6 2:50 PM R7 3:30 PM R8 4:10 PM

Race 4

1:40 PM

1400m · 9 runners

🏁 Result

1st SPIV

2nd KONSA (NZ) ⭐ Best Bet

3rd TIME TO DANCE (NZ) 💡 Saver

4th DAME DIVIDEND

〰️ Best Bet placed — KONSA (NZ) ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — TIME TO DANCE (NZ) ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

KONSA (NZ) W $2.00

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

TIME TO DANCE (NZ) P $1.22

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
3. KONSA (NZ) FAV TOP RATED	12	$2.00	$1.10	$3.16
6. SPIV	5	$3.60	$1.24	$4.23
7. TIME TO DANCE (NZ)	2	$3.50	$1.22	$4.38
11. RESUME	11	$26.00	$3.40	$15.26
12. WHITE WAVES (NZ)	9	$51.00	$4.60	$23.49
8. DAME DIVIDEND	4	$51.00	$4.60	$23.68
9. KEINBAH'S GIFT	1	$91.00	$5.50	$39.99
1. BRIDEGO	7	$91.00	$6.00	$45.71
5. ROCKBARTON BOLT	8	$91.00	$5.50	$47.81

Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.00) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99	56%	84%	25*
2.00–2.49 this race	39%	84%	38*
2.50–3.49	39%	64%	44*
3.50–4.99	30%	57%	30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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