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ROSEHILL

R1 11:00 AM R2 11:35 AM R3 12:10 PM R4 12:45 PM R5 1:20 PM R6 1:55 PM R7 2:30 PM R8 3:05 PM R9 3:40 PM R10 4:20 PM

Race 5

1:20 PM
1500m · 11 runners
🏁 Result
1st ERTIJAAJ (GB) 📍 Place Pick
2nd ISLAND DREAM
3rd JOHN DORY (NZ)
4th CHANGE MY ADDRESS
✅ Place bet — won outright — ERTIJAAJ (GB) finished 1st
Open race Thin
No standout. Play a place, take a saver, or pass.
15
ERTIJAAJ (GB) P $1.60
place only
Open race with no standout. Our model's top pick for a place bet.
7
COVERT THINKING W $9.00
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
15. ERTIJAAJ (GB) FAV TOP RATED 4 $3.90 $1.60 $5.87
1. DUVANA 11 $4.60 $1.80 $6.59
7. COVERT THINKING 3 $9.00 $2.80 $9.55
13. CHANGE MY ADDRESS 9 $8.50 $2.65 $9.67
4. ISLAND DREAM 5 $10.00 $3.10 $10.37
9. JOHN DORY (NZ) 14 $8.00 $2.45 $10.45
20. UNREAL EXPECTATION 6 $23.00 $5.50 $16.87
14. HUSH HUSH 8 $20.00 $4.80 $16.96
17. COSTABIT 12 $18.00 $4.40 $18.05
19. BLUE WILLOW 20 $23.00 $5.25 $18.28
6. FULL HAO 16 $21.00 $5.00 $20.30
Favourite record at ROSEHILL ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($3.90) sits in the 3.50–4.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00–2.49 45% 95% 20*
2.50–3.49 40% 71% 42*
3.50–4.99 this race 5% 48% 21*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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