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TOWNSVILLE

R1 12:05 PM R2 12:42 PM R3 1:22 PM R4 2:02 PM R5 2:42 PM R6 3:20 PM R7 4:00 PM R8 4:32 PM

Race 4

2:02 PM
1609m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st MORDECAI
2nd ELLIS BEACH
3rd FIRST MAN 💡 Saver
4th SAVVY THINKER
❌ Unplaced — SHE'S A BEAUTY didn't feature
✅ Saver placed — FIRST MAN ran a place
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
5
SHE'S A BEAUTY P $1.26
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
1
FIRST MAN W $6.50
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. SHE'S A BEAUTY FAV TOP RATED 3 $2.60 $1.26 $3.72
3. ELLIS BEACH 2 $3.30 $1.28 $4.50
1. FIRST MAN 6 $6.50 $1.75 $7.51
4. TALONS 1 $7.50 $2.05 $7.85
7. MORDECAI 4 $8.50 $2.15 $8.76
8. GONCALO 5 $16.00 $3.20 $12.80
9. SAVVY THINKER 9 $31.00 $4.40 $26.45
2. SHOCKSTAR (NZ) 8 $91.00 $6.00 $53.98
Favourite record at TOWNSVILLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.60) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 48% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 52% 68% 25*
2.50–3.49 this race 27% 65% 55*
3.50–4.99 22% 43% 23*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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