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Race 6

2:05 PM
1200m · 13 runners
🏁 Result
1st WILD NIGHTS
2nd FRUIT OF DE VINE
3rd LAWRENNY BOYS ⭐ Best Bet
4th CELESTIAL GLOW
〰️ Best Bet placed — LAWRENNY BOYS ran a place (win bet missed)
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
3
LAWRENNY BOYS W $2.00
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
12
LADY FERN P $2.35
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. LAWRENNY BOYS FAV TOP RATED 15 $2.00 $1.26 $3.73
12. LADY FERN 10 $7.50 $2.35 $8.75
1. TURBO CHOOK 12 $8.00 $2.40 $10.01
15. ACCUSAIENT 7 $8.50 $2.50 $10.05
5. SH' BOURNE ANGEL 3 $14.00 $3.50 $13.86
6. WINDARA WOLF 13 $17.00 $3.90 $15.84
14. FRUIT OF DE VINE 4 $21.00 $4.80 $17.16
13. WILD NIGHTS 14 $20.00 $4.60 $17.68
10. COLLEEN'S CROWN 5 $23.00 $4.80 $20.52
11. CELESTIAL GLOW 2 $21.00 $4.60 $20.85
8. OUTBUSH 1 $31.00 $5.50 $26.26
7. STRIDING BAY 6 $91.00 $10.00 $55.32
9. RAPIDS AHEAD 9 $101.00 $11.00 $64.36
Favourite record at HOBART

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.00) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00–2.49 this race 48% 76% 21*
2.50–3.49 36% 69% 45*
3.50–4.99 0% 48% 21*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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