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ROSEHILL

R1 11:00 AM R2 11:35 AM R3 12:10 PM R4 12:45 PM R5 1:20 PM R6 1:55 PM R7 2:30 PM R8 3:05 PM R9 3:45 PM R10 4:25 PM

Race 8

3:05 PM
2400m · 9 runners
🏁 Result
1st THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) ⭐ Best Bet
2nd BLACK RUN (FR) 💡 Saver
3rd SO YOU ARE
4th CABOCHE (NZ)
✅ Best Bet won — THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — BLACK RUN (FR) ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
7
THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) W $2.00
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
6
BLACK RUN (FR) P $2.10
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
7. THEBUDGIESMUGLA (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 7 $2.00 $1.20 $2.95
6. BLACK RUN (FR) 3 $7.50 $2.10 $8.04
5. SO YOU ARE 1 $8.50 $2.20 $8.54
2. MAISON LOUIS (NZ) 2 $8.00 $2.20 $9.89
4. CABOCHE (NZ) 6 $11.00 $2.45 $10.83
9. BRAVE CALL (IRE) 5 $15.00 $3.30 $12.59
1. PORTLAND (IRE) 9 $14.00 $2.90 $14.20
3. SAYEDATY SADATY (IRE) 8 $21.00 $3.90 $19.83
8. FERNAO (IRE) 4 $71.00 $8.00 $38.86
Favourite record at ROSEHILL ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.00) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00–2.49 this race 45% 95% 20*
2.50–3.49 40% 71% 42*
3.50–4.99 5% 48% 21*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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