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BALLARAT

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Race 3

2:00 PM
1400m · 12 runners
🏁 Result
1st BUCKS NIGHT
2nd ETCHED IN BLUE
3rd LYREBIRD LADY
4th THE BOTANY FROG 💡 Saver
❌ Unplaced — MENZIES CREEK didn't feature
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
5
MENZIES CREEK W $1.45
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
7
THE BOTANY FROG P $1.65
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. MENZIES CREEK FAV TOP RATED 2 $1.45 $1.09 $2.39
7. THE BOTANY FROG 14 $6.50 $1.65 $7.84
10. LYREBIRD LADY 10 $15.00 $2.70 $12.01
4. LION CITY EXPRESS (NZ) 4 $16.00 $2.75 $14.37
8. APPLE EYES 7 $19.00 $3.30 $14.83
6. MERRY JACK 11 $23.00 $3.60 $16.81
2. ETCHED IN BLUE 16 $26.00 $3.80 $23.09
9. FRIEND IN ME 6 $34.00 $4.60 $23.48
11. TENNESSEE LASS 18 $51.00 $6.00 $28.09
14. BUCKS NIGHT 1 $51.00 $6.00 $34.93
13. EMBODIMENT 12 $151.00 $13.00 $70.97
15. BOOL RUSH 13 $201.00 $17.00 $92.63
Favourite record at BALLARAT ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.50–3.49 38% 63% 40*
3.50–4.99 30% 70% 27*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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