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GRAFTON

R1 12:29 PM R2 1:04 PM R3 1:39 PM R4 2:14 PM R5 2:49 PM R6 3:24 PM R7 3:59 PM R8 4:34 PM

Race 3

1:39 PM

2200m · 9 runners

🏁 Result

1st BARAZIN (IRE) 💡 Saver

2nd FIRM AGREEMENT ⭐ Best Bet

3rd ROCK THE MACHINE

4th VERMEER

〰️ Best Bet placed — FIRM AGREEMENT ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — BARAZIN (IRE) finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

FIRM AGREEMENT W $1.50

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

BARAZIN (IRE) P $1.24

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
7. FIRM AGREEMENT FAV TOP RATED	4	$1.50	$1.02	$2.33
2. BARAZIN (IRE)	10	$4.40	$1.24	$5.50
12. WINNING POINT	6	$10.00	$1.85	$8.94
5. BRILLIANT KNIGHT	12	$12.00	$2.10	$9.42
4. ROCK THE MACHINE	7	$21.00	$3.00	$14.07
9. VERMEER	9	$41.00	$4.25	$23.34
8. THUNDERING FALCON	3	$126.00	$7.00	$45.41
6. FINAL CHAPTER (NZ)	11	$126.00	$7.00	$54.17
1. BRAVE BOY	5	$126.00	$7.00	$58.16

Favourite record at GRAFTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
2.00–2.49	31%	81%	26*
2.50–3.49	26%	74%	27*
3.50–4.99	20%	35%	20*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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