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GRAFTON

R1 12:29 PM R2 1:04 PM R3 1:39 PM R4 2:14 PM R5 2:49 PM R6 3:24 PM R7 3:59 PM R8 4:34 PM

Race 4

2:14 PM
1100m ยท 13 runners
๐Ÿ Result
1st TIDES TURNING
2nd STORM MERCHANT โญ Best Bet
3rd IMMORTAL STORM ๐Ÿ’ก Saver
4th DEEP STEALTH
ใ€ฐ๏ธ Best Bet placed โ€” STORM MERCHANT ran a place (win bet missed)
โœ… Saver placed โ€” IMMORTAL STORM ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
STORM MERCHANT W $2.00
win โญ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite โ€” market and model in agreement.
4
IMMORTAL STORM P $1.70
Saver ยท place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. STORM MERCHANT FAV TOP RATED 5 $2.00 $1.12 $3.29
4. IMMORTAL STORM 12 $5.50 $1.70 $7.20
3. ALLEZE 10 $6.50 $1.95 $7.47
8. DEEP STEALTH 9 $14.00 $3.30 $12.19
2. YOUWROTEUPONIT (NZ) 13 $15.00 $3.30 $12.90
5. TIDES TURNING 1 $14.00 $3.20 $14.63
11. GOT THE SMARTS 3 $23.00 $4.40 $18.65
9. LOVE 'N' ROCKETS 8 $41.00 $6.25 $27.87
7. THE ROOKIE 16 $51.00 $6.75 $30.54
6. KID BILLY 6 $81.00 $8.00 $38.80
13. ZOUCAT 7 $91.00 $9.00 $42.25
16. SECRET STATEMENT 11 $201.00 $16.00 $82.80
15. FRED'S MEMORY 15 $201.00 $16.00 $85.24
Favourite record at GRAFTON โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.00) sits in the 2.00โ€“2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00โ€“2.49 this race 31% 81% 26*
2.50โ€“3.49 26% 74% 27*
3.50โ€“4.99 20% 35% 20*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.