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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:35 PM R2 1:10 PM R3 1:45 PM R4 2:20 PM R5 3:00 PM R6 3:35 PM R7 4:15 PM R8 4:50 PM

Race 8

4:50 PM
1400m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st CONCRETE STORM (NZ) 💡 Saver
2nd CAVIAR
3rd BARR TURN
4th OVER THE MOUNTAIN (NZ)
❌ Unplaced — ENDEAVOUR didn't feature
✅ Saver won — CONCRETE STORM (NZ) finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
5
ENDEAVOUR W $1.95
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
8
CONCRETE STORM (NZ) P $1.55
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. ENDEAVOUR FAV TOP RATED 8 $1.95 $1.08 $3.36
8. CONCRETE STORM (NZ) 3 $5.50 $1.55 $5.28
2. CAVIAR 7 $6.00 $1.60 $6.99
3. BARR TURN 5 $9.50 $2.25 $8.95
12. OVER THE MOUNTAIN (NZ) 1 $9.00 $2.25 $9.89
6. KIVISKA (NZ) 10 $16.00 $3.20 $13.71
4. DIVINE HEIGHTS 4 $23.00 $3.90 $17.06
9. EPIC LEGEND 9 $61.00 $6.50 $38.58
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 83% 36*
2.00–2.49 38% 78% 45*
2.50–3.49 38% 66% 56*
3.50–4.99 26% 50% 38*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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