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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:20 PM R2 1:55 PM R3 2:35 PM R4 3:10 PM R5 3:50 PM R6 4:25 PM R7 5:00 PM

Race 4

3:10 PM
1150m · 9 runners
🏁 Result
1st CANAL 📍 Place Pick
2nd NAFANUA
3rd BEES KNEES
4th LADY OF THE CASTLE
✅ Place bet — won outright — CANAL finished 1st
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
1
CANAL W $2.15·P $1.10
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. CANAL FAV TOP RATED 10 $2.15 $1.10 $3.46
4. LADY OF THE CASTLE 3 $4.60 $1.38 $5.43
9. NAFANUA 5 $6.00 $1.70 $6.98
6. PERFECT FORCE 12 $9.50 $2.30 $8.12
7. STUBBORN EMMELIE 2 $8.00 $2.05 $8.70
12. BEES KNEES 4 $17.00 $3.50 $11.88
11. NOMOMEIKUSHI 9 $51.00 $6.25 $40.83
13. BATTLE WARRIOR 6 $61.00 $6.75 $45.02
14. ON HER WORD 7 $201.00 $14.00 $68.49
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.15) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 57% 84% 37*
2.00–2.49 this race 40% 79% 47*
2.50–3.49 40% 67% 58*
3.50–4.99 26% 50% 38*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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