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WARWICK FARM

R1 1:35 PM R2 2:10 PM R3 2:45 PM R4 3:20 PM R5 3:55 PM R6 4:30 PM R7 5:05 PM

Race 3

2:45 PM
2200m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st APPEARED (USA) ⭐ Best Bet
2nd FORBIDDEN RIFF 💡 Saver
3rd SPENZALOT
4th COUNTY KILKENNY (IRE)
✅ Best Bet won — APPEARED (USA) finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — FORBIDDEN RIFF ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
APPEARED (USA) W $1.70
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
2
FORBIDDEN RIFF P $1.65
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. APPEARED (USA) FAV TOP RATED 6 $1.70 $1.14 $2.74
2. FORBIDDEN RIFF 4 $4.00 $1.65 $4.81
7. PROXIMA CENTAURI (NZ) 7 $8.00 $3.00 $7.81
4. COUNTY KILKENNY (IRE) 1 $8.00 $3.00 $7.82
3. SPENZALOT 2 $17.00 $4.75 $12.31
6. SUNBURNT COUNTRY 5 $26.00 $6.25 $15.73
8. VALENTINE JOHN (IRE) 3 $71.00 $12.00 $38.43
Favourite record at WARWICK FARM ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.70) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 48% 95% 21*
2.00–2.49 54% 79% 24*
2.50–3.49 40% 68% 40*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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