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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:34 PM R2 2:09 PM R3 2:44 PM R4 3:19 PM R5 3:55 PM R6 4:29 PM R7 5:09 PM

Race 1

1:34 PM
1500m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st LAST AFFAIR (NZ) 📍 Place Pick
2nd RYE MANHATTAN
3rd SATONO'S SHOUT (NZ)
4th REELFLARE 💡 Saver
✅ Place bet — won outright — LAST AFFAIR (NZ) finished 1st
Open race Thin
No standout. Play a place, take a saver, or pass.
5
LAST AFFAIR (NZ) P $1.32
place only
Open race with no standout. Our model's top pick for a place bet.
7
REELFLARE W $6.00
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. LAST AFFAIR (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 3 $3.50 $1.32 $4.64
3. SATONO'S SHOUT (NZ) 5 $3.60 $1.32 $4.73
1. CAVIAR 2 $3.70 $1.32 $5.11
7. REELFLARE 4 $6.00 $1.75 $6.93
2. PHLOX 6 $12.00 $2.70 $9.93
8. RYE MANHATTAN 1 $15.00 $3.30 $13.42
4. TOO EXPENSIVE 8 $41.00 $5.75 $26.17
9. TIGHTROPE WALKER 9 $101.00 $9.00 $50.88
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($3.50) sits in the 3.50–4.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 51% 78% 41*
2.00–2.49 40% 80% 50*
2.50–3.49 38% 71% 69
3.50–4.99 this race 29% 51% 41*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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